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Author: Uri Simonsohn

[78b] Hyp-Chart, the Missing Link Between P-values and Bayes Factors

Posted on September 11, 2019February 12, 2020 by Uri Simonsohn

Just two steps are needed to go from computing p-values to computing Bayes factors. This post explains both steps and introduces Hyp-Chart, the missing link we arrive at if we take only the first step. Hyp-Chart is a graph that shows how well the data fit the null vs. every possible alternative hypothesis [1]. Hyp-Chart…

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[78a] If you think p-values are problematic, wait until you understand Bayes Factors

Posted on September 6, 2019September 6, 2019 by Uri Simonsohn

Would raising the minimum wage by $4 lead to greater unemployment? Milton, a Chicago economist, has a theory (supply and demand) that says so. Milton believes the causal effect is anywhere between 1% and 10%. After the minimum wage increase of $4, unemployment goes up 1%.  Milton feels bad about the unemployed but good about…

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[77] Number-Bunching: A New Tool for Forensic Data Analysis

Posted on May 25, 2019November 18, 2020 by Uri Simonsohn

In this post I show how one can analyze the frequency with which values get repeated within a dataset – what I call “number-bunching” – to statistically identify whether the data were likely tampered with. Unlike Benford’s law (.htm), and its generalizations, this approach examines the entire number at once, not only the first or…

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[69] Eight things I do to make my open research more findable and understandable

Posted on February 6, 2018January 23, 2019 by Uri Simonsohn

It is now common for researchers to post original materials, data, and/or code behind their published research. That’s obviously great, but open research is often difficult to find and understand. In this post I discuss 8 things I do, in my papers, code, and datafiles, to combat that. Paper 1) Before all method sections, I…

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[63] "Many Labs" Overestimated The Importance of Hidden Moderators

Posted on October 20, 2017February 16, 2020 by Uri Simonsohn

Are hidden moderators a thing? Do experiments intended to be identical lead to inexplicably different results? Back in 2014, the "Many Labs" project (htm) reported an ambitious attempt to answer these questions. More than 30 different labs ran the same set of studies and the paper presented the results side-by-side. They did not find any…

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[62] Two-lines: The First Valid Test of U-Shaped Relationships

Posted on September 18, 2017February 12, 2020 by Uri Simonsohn

Can you have too many options in the menu, too many talented soccer players in a national team, or too many examples in an opening sentence? Social scientists often hypothesize u-shaped relationships like these, where the effect of x on y starts positive and becomes negative, or starts negative and becomes positive. Researchers rely almost…

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[59] PET-PEESE Is Not Like Homeopathy

Posted on April 12, 2017November 13, 2024 by Uri Simonsohn

PET-PEESE is a meta-analytical tool that seeks to correct for publication bias. In a footnote in my previous post (.htm), I referred to is as the homeopathy of meta-analysis. That was unfair and inaccurate. Unfair because, in the style of our President, I just called PET-PEESE a name instead of describing what I believed was…

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[58] The Funnel Plot is Invalid Because of This Crazy Assumption: r(n,d)=0

Posted on March 21, 2017February 12, 2020 by Uri Simonsohn

The funnel plot is a beloved meta-analysis tool. It is typically used to answer the question of whether a set of studies exhibits publication bias. That’s a bad question because we always know the answer: it is “obviously yes.” Some researchers publish some null findings, but nobody publishes them all. It is also a bad…

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[57] Interactions in Logit Regressions: Why Positive May Mean Negative

Posted on February 23, 2017July 28, 2022 by Uri Simonsohn

Of all economics papers published this century, the 10th most cited appeared in Economics Letters , a journal with an impact factor of 0.5.  It makes an inconvenient and counterintuitive point: the sign of the estimate (b̂) of an interaction in a logit/probit regression, need not correspond to the sign of its effect on the…

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[56] TWARKing: Test-Weighting After Results are Known

Posted on January 3, 2017December 17, 2021 by Uri Simonsohn

On the last class of the semester I hold a “town-hall” meeting; an open discussion about how to improve the course (content, delivery, grading, etc). I follow-up with a required online poll to “vote” on proposed changes [1]. Grading in my class is old-school. Two tests, each 40%, homeworks 20% (graded mostly on a completion…

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    © 2021, Uri Simonsohn, Leif Nelson, and Joseph Simmons. For permission to reprint individual blog posts on DataColada please contact us via email..